Post-Election Impact on South West London Property Market

Affordability Reigns Supreme

Forget the election – affordability remains the single biggest influence on the mainstream housing market. With interest rates expected to fall in response to recent inflation dips (down to 2.3% as reported in May 2024), this will likely have a more significant impact than any potential change in government. Lower borrowing costs throughout the year could translate to a relatively stable mortgage market, potentially increasing buyer activity in the autumn.

The Prime Market: Weathering the Storm?

Our recent client survey revealed a sense of nonchalance among prime property buyers (79% reported no change in moving plans due to the election). 

While higher taxes – like VAT on private school fees – may be on the horizon, these buyers seem prepared. Talk of aggressive wealth taxes hasn’t materialised, suggesting a large segment of the prime market has already factored in potential policy changes. However, potential adjustments to non-domicile tax regulations could lead to a cautious summer in prime central London, with short-term price sensitivity and a potential delay in the long-awaited recovery.

Housing Delivery:

A Long-Term Game A change in government may shift the focus of housing delivery and planning, with Labour’s ambitious target of 1.5 million new homes over five years. While this could reshape the market over time, it’s unlikely to have a major near-term impact.

The Bottom Line

The South West London property market seems poised for a period of relative stability in the short term. Interest rate cuts could boost affordability, while the prime market appears to have adjusted to potential policy changes. Long-term shifts in housing delivery may emerge under a new government, but their impact will likely be felt further down the line.

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